India's forex reserves stood at $638.69 billion by February 28, 2025, experiencing a decrease of $1.7 billion. The Reserve Bank of India intervenes in the market to maintain stable conditions and control excessive volatility without targeting specific levels.
India is addressing one of its worst liquidity deficits through aggressive steps by the Reserve Bank of India, which has injected about $68 billion into the financial system since late January. These efforts are expected to create a liquidity surplus by the end of March, aiding better transmission of interest-rate cuts and supporting economic growth.
The euro extended its rally on Wednesday and hovered near four-month highs as Germany's proposed 500 billion euro ($531 billion) infrastructure fund boosted Europe's growth prospects despite global trade tensions worrying investors.
The dollar fell to a three-month low on Tuesday as concerns about slowing growth and the impact from tariffs on the U.S. economy outweighed any potential boost from the ramping up of levies on Canada, Mexico and China.
The Indian rupee closed slightly stronger at 87.37 per US dollar, benefiting from a weaker dollar index. Traders expect RBI intervention if the currency nears 88/$1.
The rupee appreciated 9 paise against the US dollar as the American currency index fell, and domestic equity markets showed signs of recovery after positive macroeconomic data. Withdrawal of foreign capital may halt due to a reported economic growth of 6.2% in Q4.
The intervention in the forex market by the RBI drained liquidity from the banking system which has been in deficit since mid-December 2024. RBI took various measures to support liquidity, from a 50 bps cut in CRR to 4% in its December MPC policy, to long tenured variable rate repo auctions and dollar-rupee buy-sell swap.
India's foreign exchange reserves surged to a two-month high of $640.5 billion as of February 21, with an increase of nearly $5 billion in a week. The Reserve Bank of India's data showed foreign currency assets, the largest component of reserves, rising by $4.25 billion. This marks a recovery from the reserves' dip influenced by market sell-offs earlier.
The Reserve Bank of India's dollar-rupee buy-sell swap saw strong demand but resulted in a lower-than-expected cut-off premium, leading to further rupee depreciation. The $10 billion swap, oversubscribed by $16.23 billion, will reverse in March 2028. Market participants expect continued weakness in the rupee as the RBI focuses on meeting the credit market's rupee liquidity needs.
The euro fell on Friday after a contentious meeting between Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and U.S. President Trump dashed hopes for a peace deal with Russia. The U.S. dollar edged higher, driven by inflation data and consumer spending trends, amid uncertainty over future Federal Reserve rate cuts.