Wall Street analysts and investors think the odds are increasing that Apple (AAPL) will get an exemption to the Trump tariffs. Apple stock rose on Friday.

CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino said the likelihood that Apple will get an exemption has risen since President Donald Trump hiked tariffs on China imports to 125% on Wednesday. Apple makes most of its iPhones in China.

"The tariff impact, as it stands, would be particularly severe for Apple, potentially increasing its cost of goods sold by $50 billion," Zino said in a client note.

"We expect Apple to delay passing any tariff costs to consumers until its fall product cycle, while raising our odds of an Apple-specific exemption to 50% (from 20%) if no U.S.-China deal materializes soon," Zino said.

Trump will not want to hurt an American icon like Apple, especially after the company pledged to spend more than $500 billion over the next four years in U.S. manufacturing and other domestic investments, Zino said. Plus, the Trump tariffs could help Apple's main competitor, South Korea-based Samsung, he said.

Meanwhile, Apple has been lowering its exposure to China in recent years, including moving some iPhone production to India.

On the stock market today, Apple stock rose 4.1% to close at 198.15.

Apple Stock Gets Price-Target Cut

Mizuho Securities trading-desk analyst Jordan Klein said the investors he has spoken with are convinced that Trump will offer an exemption to Apple.

In a client note Friday, he said, "90% of investors seem to believe Apple will get a tariff exemption. They got one in 2018 under Trump."

He added that the "company employs too many people, and U.S. voters depend too much on iPhones and will not stand for (an iPhone costing) $2,000."

Elsewhere on Wall Street, Needham analyst Laura Martin cut her price target on Apple stock to 225 from 260 but kept her buy rating. She cited the current negative economic climate and likely recession for cutting her price targets on 16 technology stocks, including Apple, on Friday.