Ben Paetzold

Here are a few tips to keep in mind for fleets considering to haul a load for FEMA or any other disaster relief project  The post What a fleet or driver should expect running FEMA loads appeared first on FreightWaves.

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Everyone always says the “cheapest option isn’t always the best” when it comes to truck rates. I agree, but I don’t see this phrase used as much in the freight tech side of the industry? I wonder how many brokerages are going to regret going “cheap” with tech especially when they market flips. You can get a tms, quoting software, tracking, vetting platforms. “ ai tools”, etc whatever else for “ cheap”. But are you actually going to recruit the best talent with below average tech? PS: I am extremely grateful HD Ships is extremely tech heavy for a company our size (50-60m), it makes recruiting a lot easier for me. Quite honestly not sure how other small agent programs compete without it. #tech #logistics #cost #trucking

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Now that we are halfway through July, I wanted to look at where the dry van truckload spot market was at. Using data from DAT Freight & Analytics, I’ve calculated the dry van spot market cycle indictor as broker buy contract rates less dry van TL spot rates divided by the average of the two series. One chart below. Thoughts: •Historically, when this ratio falls below 10%, we tend to see a bull market pricing cycle begin, which is picked up well the Bureau of Labor Statistics primary service producer price index for general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload (https://lnkd.in/gUXXNHrd). Conversely, anytime we see the series move above 15%, we enter a bear market pricing cycle. Key dates for bull cycles labeled in black, bear cycles in red. These dates mirror swings in observed contract & spot rates picked up by BLS. •The bad news for carriers is that July’s reading of 15.8% is well away from the 10% threshold. As such, there aren’t signs of the market being ready to turn. •For the market to turn, we need more freight demand. Unfortunately, as I’ve been noting frequently, demand conditions just aren’t great now. For example, Cass Shipments, which tracks the trucking ton-mile index quite closely, fell in June to the lowest level since the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (https://lnkd.in/gAZb34hZ).  As I’ll share next week, machinery manufacturing and wholesaling is especially weak. Implication: I continue to see few signs that the dry van truckload sector will enter a bull market pricing cycle in 2024. It increasingly looks like any capacity tightening felt in June was just a return of seasonality. Continued weakness in pricing and freight demand reinforces my emphasis on why domestic manufacturing activity must be front and center in discussions about freight demand, with less attention given to retail sales. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #economics #markets

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The battle between 3PLs & LTL carriers fascinates me.. One of my burning questions to God when I get to the gates- “Did the LTL carriers secretly hate us brokers?” 👉3PL company does a lot of business negotiating competitive LTL tariffs with the FedEx’s & Saia’s of the world.. (I’m not targeting them specifically. Just using them as LTL carrier examples.) They give those carriers massive volume through their customers. 👉Me (The 3PL sales rep): Busts my butt & lands a bunch of LTL shipping customers.. Gives them great rates & service. 👉LTL sales rep (Working directly for the LTL carrier): Walks into my customer’s facility.. Tries to schmooze them & says, “Why don’t you just stop using your broker? Come to me & I will give you even BETTER pricing shipping direct.” 😳🧐 👉Now if I as the broker coldcalled a shipper & they said, “Sorry, we already have an account with (insert whatever LTL carrier name)” - If I knew our 3PL had a direct contract with that carrier too, I immediately backed off. Because we have a contract with that carrier. 👉Customer calls me wanting an ETA. I call into dispatch & I am put on hold for 30+ minutes or given a vague answer or flat out lie. “Driver was already there. Told no freight. There’ll be a charge for that.” *Click* hangs up on me. 👉I call & tell the customer what dispatch said. 👉20 minutes later customer calls me back, “Driver just showed up. I talked to him & he said dispatch never called him to request an update.” 🤨 Now I know not ALL direct carrier national sales reps behave this way… but I can count at least 6 times this happened with various carriers when I was a broker… Put me out of my misery folks! I need to know… Do the sales reps & dispatchers working directly for the LTL carriers lowkey despise the 3PL brokers they partner with? 😅 #LTL #Carrier #3PL #Sales #Contracts #Logistics

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LTL not just for emergencies. It fills network gaps alongside full truckload, intermodal, and dedicated fleet options. Here're some examples. Get the full guide to working LTL freight into your multimodal mix: http://sndr.pro/2Y

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Analysis Paralysis....ever heard of it? It's the need to have everything planned out to perfection before you take action. I have seen a number of Freight Agents fall victim to this over the year. The potential is there, they could make it...but they get in their own way trying to plan everything, research everything until they could recite every detail back in a court of law, then figure out the best strategy. And waiting so long to just pick up the phone or send the email. I am a planner...so I could very easily fall victim to this mentality myself. Sometimes it just feels comfortable to research and plan instead of doing. But, I have a plan for that. (Isn't is ironic, don't you think..)I put actual productivity goals in place for myself every single week so that I don't fall victim to just thinking about something and never getting off the starting block! If you have been a Freight Agent for 3 or 6 months and haven't moved a load, or if you haven't hit your goals for 3 or 6 months in any area..stop right now! Look at your productivity each day and decide to win. Change the narrative of planning for it and just do it. You may not know everything yet, but I guarantee that you will learn more by doing the action for just one day than you would have with a week of research! So, get after it! Mondays don't win themselves!

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In what feels like the movie Groundhog Day, I wanted to share some concerns about this latest FreightWaves pro-tariff article: https://lnkd.in/gzVSJE-w. Thoughts: •Regarding the discussion of food manufacturing, the article, ironically, makes my point that tariffs can destroy domestic production by reducing exports due to retaliation. This not only means less food for trucking companies to haul, but it means fewer loads of inputs such as chemicals, ingredients, paperboard containers, plastic packaging, etc. After a two-year decline in freight volumes, this is the last thing for-hire trucking companies want to experience (especially when food manufacturing is the single largest industry in terms of generating freight that for-hire carriers haul). •Regarding food prices, I’m very skeptical of this argument. Basic economics tells us that when the demand curve shifts, firms will most likely respond by reducing supply to avoid reducing prices (see first bullet). Moreover, there is a huge assumption here that goods produced for export can be effortlessly sold on the domestic market; I’m not sure this will be the case. It’s also worth noting the producer price index for food manufacturing has been rising this year (https://lnkd.in/eXaC4cyP), due largely to the rising cost of inputs. •Concerning energy prices, my issue with the proposed argument is that energy prices today are likely near a floor, so there isn’t much chance of seeing further declines. WTI is hovering around $70 a barrel (https://lnkd.in/gSXsgJxi), and natural gas prices are running at a low level of $2.5 per million BTU (https://lnkd.in/giu5jtwq).   Electricity prices aren’t poised to come down (https://lnkd.in/gZtf8Jrr), especially with the incredible demand being placed by data center demand (https://lnkd.in/gbrMgJMg). Moreover, any significant drop in oil and gas prices will cause a drop in freight demand due to less oil & gas well drilling, and consequently less demand for construction equipment, fabricated metal goods, steel, etc. Remember, the fracking bust in 2015-2016 was the main catalyst for that freight recession. Implication: it’s good to see FreightWaves acknowledge that proposed tariffs on China and the rest of the world will result in domestic demand destruction due to retaliation against U.S. food manufacturing. Their energy cost narrative, however, ignores numerous nuances. For anyone interested, I strongly recommend this well-sourced, cogent article from The Wall Street Journal (https://lnkd.in/g-HKtkpC). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking  

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Selecting the right shipping provider is crucial for your import supply chain's success. Here are 5 things to consider: 1. Know your free days before demurrage charges start. 2. Assess how fast and far your product needs to move from the port. 3. Opt for transloading if traveling over 200-250 miles from the port. 4. Decide on the visibility level needed for in-transit freight. 5. Use a single provider for efficiency and prioritized freight handling.  Working with a comprehensive provider like Schneider: - Simplifies your supply chain management - Reduces touchpoints - Prioritizes your success This leads to cost savings and better customer focus.

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Despite claims that the freight recession is over, those of you who follow the public less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers note that most LTL outfits have been reporting declining year-over-year volumes for October and November (e.g., https://lnkd.in/gJ9Cf-VF). Continued soft volumes in the LTL space stem mostly from ongoing weakness in the industrial economy (e.g., manufacturing). In that regard, I wanted to share one industrial production series, focusing specifically on production of goods made by machine shops, turned products, and screws/nuts/bolts (https://lnkd.in/gnYJjMD8) that does a good job of capturing inflections in freight market cycles. One chart. Thoughts: •These industrial production data show seasonally adjusted physical unit output for this 4-digit industry. Crucially, the BEA estimates only 15% of the consumption of goods belonging to this industry are imported, suggesting an ongoing important role for domestic manufacturing (accounting for ~$70 billion in shipments each year: https://lnkd.in/g4tp2fr8). •As can be seen, during normal freight cycles, upticks of production in this sector correspond quite closely to the onset of bull market pricing cycles in late 2013/early 2014 and mid-2017. Equally, downturns in production correspond to bearish conditions. •The fact production didn’t start dropping till late Q3 2023 (about a year after the freight recession started) can be easily explained by the rampant raw material and labor shortages in 2021 and 2022 creating very large increases in order backlogs (https://lnkd.in/gB4iMH2j) that supported production even after new orders had cooled down. Implication: production by machine shops in the USA merits close monitoring as we move into 2025. An uptick of production would be another indicator that we are exiting the current limbo of flat freight volumes. As it appears this series has finally found its nadir, it will likely take a few more months for production to rise significantly (e.g., late Q1 2025). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #manufacturing 

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https://lnkd.in/erf37zHT Unfortunate for the ones affected by this. As some LTL companies expand their footprint, others are trimming back. Hopefully this is only temporary. Noticed the red air tanks under the drivers door. Is this a rebranded Watkins tractor from days past? #LTL #Fedex #WatkinsMotorLines #Freight #Terminals

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Inside the WHAT THE TRUCK?!? newsletter: Eclipse warnings have some rattled, freight brokerage closures accelerate and more The post Eclipsemania: What you need to know appeared first on FreightWaves.

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Two rail-related matters this morning, LinkedIn peeps: * Today and tomorrow, the Surface Transportation Board will be holding a hearing on "Growth in the Freight Rail Industry" and not only will some of the statements be interesting, observers will also be noting how the new STB Chairman Robert E. Primus conducts the hearing (how much Board member interaction will be allowed or encouraged). Bill Stephens had a piece earlier this month when the witness list was clarified (https://lnkd.in/gjUidraE) and Jay Shabat highlighted some of the submitted testimony in his weekend Railroad Weekly. You can find submitted testimony in the docket EP 775 on the STB website (https://lnkd.in/g9Gv_96q), and I imagine someone else than Alan Shaw from Norfolk Southern will join Joe Hinrichs from CSX tomorrow. * Esther Fung was in Texas recently talking with folks annoyed with long trains (colorfully referred to as "monster trains") blocking highway-rail grade crossings, which ran in this morning's print edition and which is in its online form with video and photos from Desiree Rios linked below. She was able to talk with people about how blocked crossings affect neighborhoods and first responders. She includes information from the Federal Railroad Administration's crowd-sourced blocked crossing database (https://lnkd.in/gVvbDY7n) which feature many reported blockages. This matter of blocked crossings is an issue considered by the consensus study panel convened by the Transportation Research Board of the The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine titled "Impacts of Trains Longer than 7,500 Feet (https://lnkd.in/gT2BYqjd). Our panel's report will be released in pre-publication form tomorrow (expect a post when the report is available) and we will discuss the implications of the current federal preemption of local/state laws on blocked crossings. #blockedcrossings #freight #railroads #economicgrowth

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There is a lot of excitement in the trucking community that the current freight recession is over (heavily influenced by the articles from FreightWaves). While I’ve publicly said I expect a substantial increase in dry van truckload spot rates next year, it’s important to remember that a significant rebound of freight volumes will take some time to materialize (this isn’t an overnight thing). This can be seen in the most recent quarterly version of the trucking ton-mile index (now that September’s data is complete). One chart. Thoughts: •Q3 2024 came it 0.1% above Q2 2024; I feel good at this stage declaring Q2 2024 the bottom of the current freight recession, which began in late Q2 to early q3 2022. •While we saw very high levels of containerized imports, which appeared in sectors such as electrical goods wholesaling posting record inflation adjusted sales, it’s critical to remember that many freight-centric sectors of U.S. manufacturing continue to perform poorly relative to peak freight demand in the first half of 2022. These include: Wood products: https://lnkd.in/gNmwNRd5   Paper: https://lnkd.in/gYDt3kcK Plastic & rubber: https://lnkd.in/g8ya9dAw Nonmetallic mineral products: https://lnkd.in/gJEH2Gh5 Machinery: https://lnkd.in/gy2NrYza •It will take time for manufacturing activity in these industries to rebound. As I’ve said repeatedly, late Q1 to early Q2 2025 is when I truly expect demand conditions to get strong enough for spot rates to show the type of sustained increase needed to pressure contract rates. Implication: I get carriers are excited that brighter days are ahead in 2025. However, we need to be reasonable and understand it takes time for the manufacturing ecosystem to see sustained demand increases. Moreover, I have severe concerns about 2026, as I expect folks are going to be in for a very nasty inflation surprise… #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking

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Headlines about layoffs rightly cause much concern and consternation in the trucking industry (e.g., https://lnkd.in/g9useTDD). However, it is critical to understand that this tells only half the story because a substantial percentage of trucking layoffs occur because a firm loses a key customer account. What that means is that the firm which won the business will often expand (which tends not to be reported). Below I wanted to document just how prevalent such reallocation of jobs is in trucking using population-level data from administrative records for all employer firms in truck transportation via the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) program. Data from https://lnkd.in/gVr6BbRW for all carriers. Thoughts: •The chart shows three series. The job creation rate is the jobs added by the subset of carriers that expanded or started operations in year t relative to t-1 divided by the average employment across all carriers in years t and t-1. Analogously, the job destruction rate is defined as the jobs lost due to carriers that downsized or exited in year t relative to t-1 divided by the average employment across all carriers in years t and t-1. The Net Rate of Job Change is the difference between the series and represents the percent change in employment for a given year. Data cover 1978 – 2021, with each data point representing change for that year relative to the prior year (e.g., 1978’s data point compares March 1978 data with March 1977 data). •What I want to emphasize: even when the net rate of job change is relatively low (e.g., 4.3% for March 2019 vs March 2018), this hides that there is a much higher rate of jobs being reallocated across carriers. For example, that 4.3% March 2019 figure hides a 14.9% job creation rate and a 10.6% job destruction rate. •Consequently, what economists call excessive job reallocation in 2019 was 21.2%, which represents the sum of job creation and destruction rates (14.9 + 10.6) less the absolute value of the net change in jobs (4.3), ergo 25.5 – 4.3 = 21.2. That is a lot of reshuffling of jobs across firms. Implication: Trucking jobs are reshuffled across carriers all the time. Focusing only on layoffs misses that firms which win new contracts are likely to expand. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics #transportation

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Selecting the right shipping provider is crucial for your import supply chain's success. Here are 5 things to consider: 1. Know your free days before demurrage charges start. 2. Assess how fast and far your product needs to move from the port. 3. Opt for transloading if traveling over 200-250 miles from the port. 4. Decide on the visibility level needed for in-transit freight. 5. Use a single provider for efficiency and prioritized freight handling.  Working with a comprehensive provider like Schneider: - Simplifies your supply chain management - Reduces touchpoints - Prioritizes your success This leads to cost savings and better customer focus.

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