Jeff Decker

8/2/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3AbNvfB 1. Readout of U.S. – ROK Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Committee Plenary Session 2. No N.K. nuclear attack scenario in upcoming major S. Korea-U.S. exercise: USFK commander 3. Pentagon official calls NCG 'best solution' to N.K. threats, cautions against S. Korea's nuclear option 4. Navy chief calls for solidarity against N. Korea's nuclear threats 5. State Dept. decries N.K. trash balloons as 'reckless,' 'destabilizing' 6. Why a second Trump presidency could be devastating for the Far East 7. High-Ranking North Korean Defectors: A Sign of Cracks in Kim Jong Un’s Regime? 8. North Korean defectors meet with US UN deputy ambassador… Suggest ways to improve human rights in North Korea 9. Young North Korean defectors said, "We need to continue the inflow of information to North Korea...It's also important to provide a variety of information" 10. ‘We need to show unity’: Germany joins UN Command to enforce Korean War armistice 11. No response from N. Korea on S. Korea's offer for flood relief: unification ministry 12. South Korea Fires Laser Weapon To Shoot Down UAV During Demo; Marks 1st Public Display Of Advanced DEW 13. S. Korea, U.S. hold first-ever table-top military exercise in Pyeongtaek 14. First US Navy promotion ceremony held aboard Korean naval ship 15. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Forced Labor Camps on Collective Farms Target Urban Job Deserters 16. State media shows North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un leading flood rescue 17. Monument set up to commemorate N. Korean defectors who died during escapes

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12/20/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/400z7kO 1. Gen. Brunson takes office as new USFK commander with vow to bolster S. Korea-U.S. alliance 2. Don't bypass S. Korea 3. Acting defense chief, U.S. Indo-Pacific commander underscore trilateral security cooperation with Japan 4. Why Kim Jong-un's Reform Desire Has Cooled 5. Russians see North Koreans as a ‘burden’ over ignorance of drones: South says 6. Korea needs to address polarization, upgrade its democracy 7. Ukrainian military unveils footage of drone attacks on NK soldiers: report 8. 'North Korean Killer' Drone Double-Sided… Scattering Surrender Leaflets 9. N. Korea's flood victims brought to Pyongyang write letters of thanks to leader Kim 10. N. Korea arrests former trade official in Chinese phone crackdown 11. UN General Assembly adopts resolution on N. Korean human rights for 20th straight year 12. S. Korean shipbuilders to retain edge in high-value vessels despite order slump 13. North Korean Troops Launched Large-Scale Combat Operations In Kursk: Officials 14. Martial law teaches an essential lesson: leaders must listen 15. Researcher: North Korea can produce ballistic missiles for Russia to use against Ukraine in months 16. Moving Forward on North Korea: The Case for Bold Transitional Justice Initiatives in South Korea 17. Drone defense, bombing practice keep US, South Korean forces busy 18. Lazarus Group Spotted Targeting Nuclear Engineers with CookiePlus Malware 19. N. Korea arrests former trade official in Chinese phone crackdown 20. NK responsible for 61% of global cryptocurrency heists: Chainalysis 21. Former general implicated in Dec. 3 martial law plot ran fortune-telling business: Reports 22. Can Trump Work With South Korea’s Left? 23. Voice of America (VOA) Interview with Col. David Maxwell (Ret.) discusses U.S.-Republic of Korea Alliance after coup attempt

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6/8/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/4aPDD7L 1. Voice of America: [Washington Talk] “Military agreement suspended, Korean military ‘shackles’ lifted… “Information warfare must be expanded across the board.” 2. North Korea—The Forgotten Human Rights Crisis 3. North Korea recalls documentary about Kim Jong Un’s mother 4. America’s Military Strategy: Can We Handle Two Wars at Once? 5. Kim Jong Un 'polite' and Trump 'practical'? Former leader's kind words cause an uproar 6. An American Company Enabled a North Korean Scam That Raised Money for WMDs 7. Dissecting Propaganda: Using AI to Cut Through North Korean TV Spin 8. It's Getting Heated—and Filthy—on the Korean Peninsula 9. Building Trust, Building Peace: Role Of Confidence-Building Measures On Korean Peninsula 10. Russia’s war in Ukraine has turned South Korea into a manufacturing hotspot 11. Deterring North Korean aggression remains primary goal, new fighter wing commander says 12. US warns North Korea against providing Putin platform for war aims 13. Surpass the Cutting Edge: Reflections on North Korea’s Failed May 27 Satellite Launch 14. N. Korea sends balloons carrying trash to S. Korea again: JCS 15. At UN, North Koreans beg China to stop sending escapees back 16. N. Korea, China, Russia expanding nuclear arsenals at ‘breakneck’ pace: White House official 17. S. Korea, U.S. to hold 3rd round of defense cost-sharing negotiations in Washington next week

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1/9/25 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3Ptu0n7 1. New US-ROK Combined Forces Commander Brunson: “Stability in the Region Depends on US-ROK-Japan Security Cooperation” 2. Ex-top U.S. envoy recalls his decision to come to S. Korea as most rewarding 3. North Korea's Russia Alliance and Missiles are a Big Problem for Trump and Allies 4. South Korea’s conservatives rally, rebound in face of martial law, impeachment dramas 5. Yoon's lawyers file for injunction against 2nd detention warrant 6. USFK commander stresses need to maintain trilateral cooperation among S. Korea, U.S., Japan 7. N. Korea's missile launch this week shows where 'blood' money ends up: Seoul envoy 8. Home of ex-security official raided in probe over alleged leak of THAAD-related intelligence (South Korea) 9. U.S. may weigh nuclear sharing with South Korea under Trump, experts say 10. Elbridge Colby and the Return of Republican Realism 11. Editorial: Democratic Party must prioritize governance over election ambitions 12. Troops will not be allowed to help prevent Yoon's arrest, says Defense Ministry 13. Trump cabinet and Korea 14. Trump's 2nd term personnel include those who are pro-North Korea dialogue... A signal for a new North Korea policy? 15. [Wang Son-taek] ‘Kisses democracy’ will prevail 16. “North Korea, Kim Joo-ae’s solo activities may be disclosed for achievements” 17. Loud, eerie noises from North Korean speakers take a toll on villagers across border

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A unique and useful essay from Dr. Lumpy Lumbaca. I thought the title meant "And/Or" as in irregular "and/or" conventional warfare. But on a more serious note, we need to use fiction and even pop culture more often to explain irregular warfare concepts. I wonder if the writers of Andor knew they were employing these concepts? Had they read irregular/unconventional warfare doctrine or was this by chance? Or is unconventional warfare doctrine merely common sense and based on historical actions in the real world. I can say for sure that unconventional warfare is a synthesis of of the history or revolution, resistance, and insurgency, Excerpt: QUOTE: Ultimately, the brilliance of Andor lies in its ability to translate the realities of insurgency and irregular warfare into a compelling narrative set in a galaxy far, far away. It embraces the moral complexities, the internal struggles, and the immense human cost of resistance. By grounding its story in these real-world themes, Andor transcends the genre of space opera fantasy and offers a thought-provoking exploration of the fight for self-determination against overwhelming odds. While entertaining and a Hollywood production, Andor nevertheless captures the real-world elements of modern insurgency and irregular warfare. END QUOTE https://lnkd.in/e_89xK7W

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The DoD Directive 5240.01 could potentially be interpreted or misused covertly for operations that might lead to violations of civil liberties, but such actions would still require significant legal and procedural breaches. The document itself emphasizes strict oversight and high-level approval for any intelligence-related activities involving U.S. persons, and particularly for actions involving the use of force, lethal or otherwise. However, covert misuse is always a possibility when there is a lack of transparency or insufficient oversight. Some factors that could theoretically open the door to covert misuse include: 1. Ambiguities in Definitions: The document references complex legal frameworks, including the use of intelligence-related “tradecraft” and activities under Executive Orders like 12333. While these tools are meant for national security, the vague boundaries between intelligence support and active participation in law enforcement operations (especially involving lethal force) might be stretched in covert scenarios. 2. Exigent Circumstances Clause: Section 3.5 allows for immediate action by intelligence personnel without higher-level authorization when there is an imminent threat to life. This provision could be exploited in an emergency situation or under fabricated claims of immediate danger to justify the use of force. 3. Sensitive Support Activities: Some sections of the document refer to sensitive intelligence operations that are governed by other directives, such as DoDD S-5210.36, which governs covert operations. This leaves room for classified operations that may fall outside typical civilian oversight, creating a gray area where covert activities could be conducted without direct accountability, provided they are justified under national security concerns. However, these covert uses would still technically be illegal under U.S. law, as the directive requires compliance with the Constitution and federal laws, including protections for civil liberties. Misuse would likely involve bypassing or ignoring the legal oversight mechanisms outlined in the directive, which could lead to severe legal consequences if exposed. Therefore, while the directive provides tools that could be misused covertly, such actions would not be legally authorized and would rely on circumventing the extensive oversight and approval processes built into the directive. It is an unwise timing if not dangerous down the path towards potential use of the military on American citizens if it is misused or misinterpreted and applied wrongly. It leaves too much ambiguity in its application and does not provide adequate checks and balances upon decision makers. It marks potential further steps towards the breaking of the separation of powers and checks and balances. The timing of it during heightened political divisions and distrust of the federal government is inherently foolish in terms of optics serving only to increase distrust. Othniel Max Daves

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Japan struggling politically as the question is should Japan double down on not having nuclear weapons while relying on the US extended deterrence (and how). As opposed to discussions in NE Asia and elsewhere, were percieved commitment (weakness) on the part of U.S. has regional partners considering indigenous nuclear capability. The question not (often) spoke will the US trade Seattle or Boston for - Berlin, Warsaw, Vilnius, Seoul, Darwin or Osaka. Every western country wants a laws based liberal that protects the global community. But, that system has no enforcement capacity except (often) marginally effective sanctions with companies from (even "paragon") countries like Germany having a long history of cheating. In the end every country will (at least at the margin) act first in its national interest - while using the liberal ideal to rally support from less threatened nations. When the US fails to act with strong resolve and lets our capabilities atrophy then our extended deterrence becomes both less capable and credible. The result isa long list of nuclear weapons capable countries wondering if even a small domestic nuclear hedge force is needed. France, the UK and Israel have long held that position. Ukraine gave up it's nuclear weapon and no rational person believe Putin would have annexed Crimea or invaded Ukraine had Ukraine not been coerced to give up it's nuclear weapons in return for assurances that have not been met. It is just a matter of time and Iran, China and Russia and or increasing the pressure for countries to have greater indigenous defense capabilities, not reliant on US domestic political resolve.

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The PLA has made great strides in developing highly advanced electronic warfare (EW) system of systems complex, which "vastly exceed those of the Russian military and probably even the US military" today. The PLA's EW complex consists of a mix of land, sea, air, and space-based crewed and uncrewed electronic attack platforms, anti-radiation missiles, high-energy lasers and microwave weapons to disrupt and confuse or damage and destroy enemy systems. In addition, the PLA has developed space-based electronic attack capabilities, such as “experimental on-orbit jamming systems” and road-mobile satellite jamming equipment. Taken together, the PLA's EW complex poses a major challenge to the US military in the region, with rapidly growing capability to disrupt and destroy US' military's 'eyes and ears', including radars, datalinks and communication systems in the theatre, while protecting its own. https://lnkd.in/dqm5g8HK

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10/22/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3BVlhXg 1. #KOREAS: Million man Army for rent to the Kremlin 2. North Korea: Scenarios for Leveraging Nuclear Weapons through 2030 3. North Korea’s Entry into the Ukraine War by Mick Ryan 4. North Korean troops in Russia pose challenge to U.S., allies from ‘axis of authoritarianism’ 5. Seoul weighing ‘various’ responses to North Korea sending troops to Ukraine 6. Why some experts think North Korea faked evidence of ROK drone intrusion 7. Kim Yo Jong threatens ‘fatal’ retaliation against Seoul, while slamming Ukraine 8. Seoul warns it could arm Ukraine to counter North Korean troop deployment 9. North Korea denies it has deployed troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine 10. Kim Jong Un calls out problems rebuilding flood-hit villages near weapons plants 11. 76 North Korean escapees arrive in South Korea in third quarter 12. What Ukraine should expect from North Korean special forces on the battlefield 13. US consults allies about North Korea troops in Ukraine 14. The making of a North Korea expert: Smoke, mirrors, and speculation 15. Does North Korea’s Kim know about his country’s dark Vietnam War past?

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After thinking, "Hey! That's my idea for an article!" (...that I failed to write), I saw that Dan Hough wrote it better than I ever could! Too often US planners either assume that #AccessBasingAndOverflight (#ABO) in #Japan is assured, either because US forces have been based in Japan since the end of WWII or because Japan is closely aligned with the US in its perception of the threat posed by the #PRC across the #TaiwanStrait. While both of these things are true, ABO in Japan is one of the major operational challenges to the US #JointForce in any #TaiwanContingency. While ABO impacts all parts of the Joint Force, it is often felt most acutely by land forces, like #IIIMEF. Whether in exercises during competition or in delivering combat power during conflict, air and sea forces can adjust their operating locations outside of Japan if ABO is late-to-need. Not so with land forces. Land forces like the #Marines face two ABO-based challenges in operating from Japan, dispersing off of concentrated and fixed locations like US and #JSDF bases, and the #PriorConsultation required between the US and Japan before any combat operations are conducted from (or through or terminating in) Japanese airspace and territory. While access to private land in competition is understandably difficult (who wants a bunch of Marines and their equipment traipsing through their fields, after all!), the US and Japan too infrequently rehearse the crisis procedures to grant such access in a conflict. Such rehearsals are essential to identify #policy gaps (and solutions) to procedures that are too slow for a fast-moving crisis and also crucial opportunities for #diplomats, #policymakers, and other #alliance managers to see exactly what the ABO needs are and what the risks and opportunities are of granting such ABO in a timely fashion (or failing to do so). Policymakers are not the only beneficiaries. Tactical and operational commands can use such rehearsals to (in)validate their assumptions about authorities, develop branch plans if such authorities are limited or granted later than expected, and to gain critical insights into national decision-making processes that help tactical commands, like III MEF, ensure their requests for authorities are realistic, timely, and supported with sufficiently detailed justifications and identified risks. Dan provides an excellent summary of such matters and explores what can be done to strengthen the alliance and, in so doing, strengthen #deterrence.

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Check out this Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) article by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. It proposes critical questions to understand the reasoning and impacts of North Korean troops deployed in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The arrival of these troops in Russia is a reminder of the shifting global alliances that have implications far beyond the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As authoritarian governments like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran grow closer, we’re seeing a challenge to the international rules-based order that has helped maintain peace and prosperity across multiple regions, including the Indo-Pacific. Russia’s decision to bring in North Korean support highlights the lengths it’s willing to go to maintain its position despite internal struggles and manpower shortages. This partnership adds another layer of complexity, hinting at a growing alliance between regimes prioritizing strength over transparency and cooperation. We can better prepare for the impacts on security and stability worldwide by understanding these shifts. #geopolitics #alliesandpartners #freeandopenindopacific

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Great article by Raphael Cohen regarding how the assumptions of defense planning within the US must evolve in the emergent international security environment. Cohen's argument, that the force sizing constructs used by the Pentagon are hopelessly outdated, should resonate with many in the strategic planning and policy communities, to include many of my former colleagues in the Army Strategist and Joint Planning communities. To be clear, the concerns outlined by Cohen are not new, but hopefully this piece will be a clarion call for Congress, Pentagon leadership, and most especially the American People. #strategy #GPC #defence #defense #CCMD #Geopolitics #NATO

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Kari Bingen and Audrey Schaffer of Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on why we should try to engage #China now on space norms. It is the right thing to do. It is in China's interest and ours to cooperate in certain areas. I also agree with "Such engagement is not a substitute for continued U.S. investments and policies that maintain U.S. global leadership in space, prepare the United States to protect and defend its space-related interests, and foster a vibrant U.S. commercial space sector." https://lnkd.in/ekr9533x

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7/5/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3We82c8 1. Yoon to travel to U.S. next week for NATO summit, Indo-Pacific Command visit 2. N. Korea underscores swift, accurate weather forecasts for agriculture during monsoon season 3. Love lost? How Putin could spoil a Trump push to rekindle ties with Kim Jong Un 4. After a lull, South Korea is suddenly talking about going nuclear again 5. Police endorse charges for man who said ROK should accept North Korean invasion 6. FM highlights importance of 'mutually considerate' attitude in bilateral ties with Japan 7. N. Korean officials shake down illegal profiteers for bribes 8. N. Korean women's union promotes superiority of socialist system 9. N. Korea to import equipment for hydropower plants 10. Deepening Russia-North Korea ties test US-South Korea deterrence strategy 11. [Interview: Former Deputy Secretary Armitage] 'The deployment of North Korean troops will be a bloody experiment' 12. Putin’s diplomacy with North Korea deepens the global risk in Ukraine 13. Podcast: John Linton: Why Korean reunification could happen tomorrow

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11/18/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3ZcLvOk 1. “If the North Korean military deployment expands, it could affect the war… There are limits to improving combat capabilities” 2. North Korea can send up to 100,000 troops to support Russia in Ukraine 3. Retired US colonel: Biden is sending a message to North Korea and China about supporting Russia 4. Japan's minister visits Ukraine to stress mutual concern over North Korean troops 5. North Korea delivers 70 missile launchers, artillery systems to Russia's Kursk Oblast, FT reports 6. N. Korea sends trash-carrying balloons to S. Korea for 1st time in 3 weeks 7. North Korea slams ROK balloon launches, scattering propaganda over Seoul 8. Ukraine issues update on size of North Korean force in Russia 9. China's stance on North Korea, Russia appears to shift as South, U.S. and Japan up pressure 10. Effort to stop N.K. military support for Russia needs to go in parallel with denuclearization push: FM 11. U.N. committee voices concerns over negative impact of N.K.'s abandonment of reunification policy 12. What we know about North Korean troops in Ukraine 13. N. Korean officials ordered to enforce "two hostile states" doctrine in propaganda push 14. Audit agency refers ex-security adviser to probe over delayed deployment of THAAD 15. Aid theft undermines N. Korean flood recovery efforts 16. N. Korea holds lectures condemning Yoon, S. Korean politics 17. N. Korea's Kim calls for bolstering nuclear forces 'without limitation,' completing war preparations 18. S. Korea reviews measures to reclaim loans to N. Korea over destruction of land routes 19. Military coup unlikely in protest of 3rd hereditary power transfer in N. Korea: ex-diplomat

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This stellar survey by the Carnegie California team surfaces a lot of interesting subnational differences on China policy. The surface differences between the sunny west coast (where commercial links to China are the primary interest) and the gloomy DC beltway (where natsec concerns reign) are belied by deep and growing concern about risks to CA critical infrastructure, esp. ports, and willingness to be much more confrontational with PRC than might be expected. Have a look at my piece below and the survey itself: https://lnkd.in/eECVgTHz

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July is bustling with conferences, and here's one more to add to your calendar! The Irregular Warfare Initiative is co-hosting the "Intelligence & the Changing Landscape of Irregular Warfare" conference on July 17-18, promising an awesome event. Why should you attend? Check out the program, especially the second topic on the list: CYBERsecurity! It's exciting to see cybersecurity taking the spotlight at this event. Often overlooked in discussions on Irregular Warfare, cybersecurity plays a crucial role in the development and functionality of the technology we use in combat. Understanding the intricate web of systems is vital for effective warfighting. Don't miss the chance to delve deeper into this crucial aspect at the conference! Register here: https://lnkd.in/ga7zUCtC #IrregularWarfare #Cybersecurity #Conference #Defense #Technology #Warfighting #IWICyber Special Operations Association of America

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