CICC: The cooling of U.S. inflation reflects a slowdown in demand, and the next interest rate cut may have to wait until the third quarter

CICC research report states that the core and total CPI inflation in the U.S. fell in February, both lower than market expectations. From a breakdown perspective, oil prices and airfare prices have significantly cooled, reflecting weakened economic demand. Overall, rent remains moderate, and the increase in core goods prices has slowed. Looking ahead, CICC believes that the slowdown in demand is conducive to curbing inflation, and the real estate and labor markets may not become sources of inflation by 2025. However, tariffs may push up short-term price levels, increasing the stickiness of inflation. The Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates and will wait for clarity on tariff policies before taking action. CICC maintains its previous judgment that the next interest rate cut may have to wait until the third quarter