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Hybrid intelligent modeling of wild fires risk

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Abstract

Forest fires are one of the most serious natural disasters for the countries of the Mediterranean basin and especially for Greece. Studying the climate change effect on the maximization of the problem is a constant objective of the scientific community. This research initially proposes an innovative hybrid version of the statistical Chi-Square test that employs Soft Computing methods. More specifically it introduces the Fuzzy Chi Square Independence test that fuzzifies p values using proper Risk Linguistics, based on Fuzzy Membership functions. In the second stage, it proposes a new Hybrid approach that models the evolution of burned areas in Greece. First it analyzes the parameters and determines the way they affect the problem, by constructing Fuzzy cognitive maps. The system projects into the future and forecasts the evolution of the problem through the years till 2100, based on the variance of average monthly temperature and average rain height (due to climate change) for the months May–October based on various climate models. Historical data for the period 1984–2004 were used to test the system for the areas of Chania and Ilia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Forest Informatics, Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, 193 Pandazidou st., 68200, Orestiada, Greece

    Vardis-Dimitris Anezakis & Konstantinos Demertzis

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, University Campus, Kimmeria, 67100, Xanthi, Greece

    Lazaros Iliadis

  3. Laboratory of Computational Mathematics, School of Engineering, Department of Production and Management Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, V.Sofias 12, Prokat, Building A1, 67100, Xanthi, Greece

    Stefanos Spartalis

Authors
  1. Vardis-Dimitris Anezakis
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  2. Konstantinos Demertzis
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  3. Lazaros Iliadis
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  4. Stefanos Spartalis
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Correspondence to Konstantinos Demertzis.

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Anezakis, VD., Demertzis, K., Iliadis, L. et al. Hybrid intelligent modeling of wild fires risk. Evolving Systems 9, 267–283 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12530-017-9196-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12530-017-9196-6

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