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The Effects of Climatological Factors on Global Influenza Across Temperate and Tropical Regions

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Abstract

Recently, global epidemic models that use climatological factors have been proposed to explain influenza activities for both temperate and tropical regions. In this paper, these global models were extended by including interactions of climatological factors. This study was aimed to estimate the relative benefits of such interactions in explaining the global influenza epidemics. The effects of four climatological factors on laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were investigated, i.e., weekly temperature, precipitation, absolute humidity and relative humidity. It was found that countries in Europe and Australia have higher forecast skill, indicating the stronger relationship of influenza with climatological factors, than regions in other continents. The influenza activities of 47 (83%) countries can be explained with a closer match using multi-factor interactions along with original factors than only using the original factors. The temperate countries are characterized by the interaction of factors of temperature and absolute/relative humidity. In contrast, the interaction of factors of precipitation and absolute/relative humidity are dominant in tropical countries.

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Acknowledgements

This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 71901147, 41801392, 41901329, 41971354, and 41971341), the Research Program of Shenzhen S&T Innovation Committee (Project Nos. JCYJ20210324093600002 and JCYJ20210324093012033), the National Social Science Foundation of China (grant no. 20BTJ062), The Foundation of Jilin Provincial Science & Technology Department (grant no. 20180101332JC), the Science Technology Research Foundation of Jilin Province Education Department under Grant (No. JJKH20210135KJ), the Research Program of Shenzhen S and T Innovation Committee, China (No. JCYJ20180305125131482), the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, MNR, China (Nos. KF-2019-04-010, KF-2019-04-014, KF-2018-03-066 and KF-2019-04-034), the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China (Nos. 2019A1515010748 and 2019A1515011872), the Foundation of High-level University Phase II, China (No. 000002110335), and the Foundation of Shenzhen University for New Researchers, China (No. 2019056).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Research Institute for Smart Cities, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China

    Zhilu Yuan, Shengjun Tang & Zhanwei Du

  2. College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun, 130012, China

    Qiuyang Huang & Yuan Bai

  3. School of Management Science and Information Engineering, Jilin University of Finance and Economics, Changchun, 130117, China

    Chijun Zhang

  4. Jilin Big Data Research Center for Business, Jilin University of Finance and Economics, Changchun, 130117, China

    Chijun Zhang

  5. Marshall School of Business, The University of Southerm California, California, USA

    Zeynep Ertem

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  1. Zhilu Yuan
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Correspondence to Qiuyang Huang.

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Yuan, Z., Tang, S., Huang, Q. et al. The Effects of Climatological Factors on Global Influenza Across Temperate and Tropical Regions. Mobile Netw Appl 28, 439–451 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11036-022-01955-1

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